BC Business
In our fifth annual ranking of B.C.'s best cities for work, we have a former No. 1 back in the top spot, a handful of reliable contenders and a lively shakeup of the rest. This year's list features a retuned methodology, three new indicators and an expanded LIST of 46 communities that adds several challengers
With a provincial economy firing on all cylinders the past few years and a tightening labour market putting upward pressure on incomes, it’s a good time to be working just about anywhere in B.C., regardless of where your community ranks. As the economy cruises along, several cities have climbed above 10,000 in population and onto this year’s list, Whistler, Sechelt and Nelson among them.
In our fifth annual Best Cities for Work in B.C., we’ve again worked closely with research partner Environics Analytics to determine the economic outlook for dozens of communities, with an eye on the year ahead. We carried over seven indicators from the 2018 survey: average household income, household income for primary earners under age 35, five-year income growth, average household spending on recreation, average shelter costs, five-year population growth and unemployment rate. We’ve also added three new ones: average commute time, average value of primary real estate and housing starts per 10,000 residents.
In the process, we’ve fine-tuned our methodology, resulting in a shift of weighting from so-called lagging economic indicators, such as income growth, to more forward-looking or leading indicators like housing starts. This has also struck a better balance between income-related indicators, expense-related indicators and those that signal a city’s broader economic health.
Squamish takes the top spot for the second time in three years, showcasing its economic staying power. Neighbouring Whistler makes a strong debut at No. 2, and the nearby District of North Vancouver rounds out the top three.
The Sea-to-Sky Corridor owes its strength to several factors, including fast-rising incomes, generous spending on recreation and booming population growth. Squamish edges out Whistler thanks to one of the province’s busiest home construction markets.
For this year’s ranking, we’ve taken home-building activity into account to provide a more forward-looking view of a community’s economic fitness. As a leading economic indicator, housing starts reflect investor confidence in a local market and imply anticipated population growth, job growth in construction and development-related industries, and increased retail sales—you have to fill those homes with something.
After two years in the top three, the 2018 leaders, Fort St. John and Dawson Creek, experienced notable drops. Incomes remain strong in the Northeast, but the unemployment rate—although still healthy—is outperformed by much of the province. Population growth and housing starts have also cooled, perhaps because persistently low fossil fuel prices are finally taking their toll. But the relative decline of these communities may speak more to the economic uptick elsewhere in the province than their own shortcomings.
The District of North Vancouver can attribute its top-three showing to having the highest household income, correspondingly strong household spending on recreation, solid housing starts numbers and—along with the rest of Metro Vancouver—one of the tightest unemployment rates in B.C.
This year saw a notable shakeup in the performance of other Metro Vancouver municipalities. Township of Langley, City of Langley, City of North Vancouver, Maple Ridge, Coquitlam, Surrey and Richmond all rose, while Delta, Port Coquitlam, Pitt Meadows, Burnaby and New Westminster saw declines. Those that climbed generally had higher incomes, income growth, recreational spending and home construction activity in 2018.
Vancouver also plunged this year, from No. 9 to No. 31. High housing costs, longer commute times and mediocre incomes for people under age 35 brought down its score.
We took residential real estate prices into account for the first time, and many of this year’s top performers scored well despite their pricey property markets. For existing homeowners, a rise in real estate values has yielded big financial gains, but not without a cost, notes Isanna Biglands, a Toronto-based research associate with Environics Analytics.
“With the combined effect of rising interest rates, mortgage and interest payments could be pinching the wallets of many households in British Columbia,” Biglands says. “So although households have never been richer in terms of their assets, these rising interest rates put increased pressure on discretionary spending for households.”
If you don’t already own a home, getting established in a community with costly real estate poses that much more of a financial challenge. That’s why we added a new indicator to supplement the average-shelter-spending metric from previous years, which includes data for households that have already paid off their mortgages and so doesn’t reflect true shelter costs if purchasing in 2019.
Despite solid population growth, the Fraser Valley communities of Abbotsford, Chilliwack and Mission took a tumble in this year’s ranking. Their weaknesses: below-average performances for income, cost of housing, commute times, housing starts and unemployment rate.
However, Victoria suffered the biggest fall, dragged down by low average incomes, including the least for residents under age 35 of any city on the list. One silver lining: with the province’s lowest unemployment rate, it can look forward to higher incomes. The drastic change in Victoria’s fortunes also owes something to another adjustment to this year’s methodology that breaks the Capital Region into its constituent municipalities. This gave greater representation to other southern Vancouver Island municipalities while filtering out some of the region’s higher-income bedroom communities at Victoria’s expense.
On a more positive note, the Cariboo made conspicuous gains, with Prince George and Quesnel benefiting from affordable housing markets, short commute times and solid unemployment figures.
Parksville and Salmon Arm made the largest jumps—the former assisted by a low unemployment rate and high average incomes for under-35 earners and the latter by robust income growth, affordable housing and a short commute.
The new commute-time indicator puts greater emphasis on a community’s quality of life. “People have more opportunity to choose their mode of transportation the closer they live to their work,” Biglands explains. “There is also an opportunity cost for the time spent commuting.” As she puts it: “With less time spent commuting, households can use that time as they please. This can lead to more satisfaction as work and home life are better balanced.”
Although the 2019 outlook for B.C. is positive, economists expect a moderation from the pace of recent years, with TD Economics forecasting a decline in real gross domestic product to 1.9 percent in 2019, from 2017’s 3.9 percent and 2018’s forecasted 2.4 percent. Still, a few key factors could significantly affect B.C. communities in 2019 and the years ahead, including the housing market, oil and gas industry, and global economy.
Even with property sales declining in 2018 after the introduction of mortgage stress-testing and interest rate hikes, housing in much of B.C. remains unaffordable. But where the market goes now is anybody’s guess as prices stay untethered from local incomes.
In Metro Vancouver, a modest price correction could make it easier for companies to lure and retain skilled labour, and attract investment. Conversely, continually rising prices may accelerate the economic and population growth seen in cities such as Kelowna and Victoria in recent years. However, as housing in these second-tier urban centres becomes less affordable in turn, there could be a beneficial knock-on effect for the province’s smaller centres.
Recent trends in oil and gas suggest that the Northeast is poised for an economic rebound. With fossil fuel prices gradually rising and the LNG Canada consortium moving ahead with its Kitimat export terminal for liquefied natural gas, the production centres of Fort St. John and Dawson Creek will share in the rewards—as will communities on the North Coast.
Driving these trends is a growing global economy, with the International Monetary Fund calling for steady expansion in 2019. That could bring more prosperity to B.C. communities, as foreign countries and their residents become increasingly important to the province’s centres of immigration, tourism, education and trade. But given international trade worries and uneven global economic expansion, it remains unclear how B.C. may benefit.
Regardless of how your city fared in this year’s ranking, keep in mind that many of those in the middle scored very close to one another. And in a province with a healthy economic outlook, spectacular landscapes and ready access to the great outdoors, even the lowest-ranking cities have much to offer.
Average household income (10 points)This figure represents the average for 2018. To determine a score out of 10, we gave the top average income 10 points and ranked the other cities in relation to that.
Average household income under 35 (10 points)This number represents the 2018 average household income for primary income earners under the age of 35. Again, we gave the highest average 10 points and ranked other communities accordingly.
Five-year average household income growth (15 points)This number represents the percentage income growth from 2013 to 2018. Assuming a floor of zero, the top value received 15 points, with the other cities scoring accordingly.
Average household spending on recreation (10 points)This indicator measures household spending on all leisure tracked by Statistics Canada, from concerts and sporting events to recreational vehicles and home entertainment systems. Giving the city with the highest average recreation spending a 10, we ranked the others in relation to it.
Average shelter spending (10 points)This figure covers recurrent housing-related living expenses, such as mortgage payments, rent and utilities, for 2018. The city with the lowest average shelter spending received a score of 10, with the other cities scoring in inverse proportion.
Average value of primary real estate (5 points) This value measures the average price of primary real estate (i.e., not including secondary or recreational properties). We gave the lowest value 10 points and scored the other cities in inverse proportion.
Average commute time (10 points)This indicator provides the average one-way commute time, in minutes, for all members of the employed labour force aged 15 and older. The city with the lowest average duration received a score of 10, with the other cities scoring in relation to that.
Five-year population growth (10 points)This figure represents the proportional population growth of each city from 2013 to 2018. We limited the floor to zero and scored cities out of a maximum value of 10.
Housing starts per 10,000 residents (10 points)This value is derived from the year-to-date housing starts from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s monthly Starts and Completion Survey to the end of September 2018. Housing starts are divided by the total city population and multiplied by 10,000 to give the number of housing starts per 10,000 residents. The city with the highest number of housing starts per 10,000 residents received a score of 10, with the other cities scoring in relation to that.
Unemployment rate (10 points)This number is the unemployment rate from Statscan’s Labour Force Survey for September 2018. We gave the lowest unemployment rate 10 points and scored the others in relation to that.
Our ranking only includes cities with more than 10,000 permanent residents.
We excluded bedroom communities such as Lake Country, Sooke and West Vancouver, which may offer a high quality of life but have relatively small job markets.
For the first time, Langley and North Vancouver are represented on the ranking by both their city and district governments.
We work with research partner Environics Analytics because we believe it has the best data availablebut even the best data has its limitations. To produce its income numbers, for example, Environics Analytics uses data from Statistics Canada and the Canada Revenue Agency projected to 2018. The unemployment rates come from Statscan’s September 2018 Labour Force Survey, a three-month moving average that only calculates rates for B.C.’s eight economic regions and four census metropolitan areas. Similarly, housing starts figures are provided by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.’s monthly Starts and Completion Survey, and only reflect the year-to-date figures collected to the end of September 2018. Therefore, the latter two indicators won’t reflect economic trends for the rest of the year.
1. Squamish
2018 rank: 3
Average household income (10%): $116,171
Average household income under 35 (10%): $77,294
Five-year average household income growth (15%): 23.1%
Average household spending on recreation (10%): $5,692
Average shelter spending (10%): $26,207
Average value of primary real estate (5%): $836,807
Average commute in minutes (10%): 27.1
Five-year population growth (10%): 13.1%
Housing starts per 10,000 residents (10%): 137.7
Unemployment rate (10%): 4.5%
2. Whistler
2018 rank: n/a
Average household income (10%): $125,677
Average household income under 35 (10%): $75,518
Five-year average household income growth (15%): 23.4%
Average household spending on recreation (10%): $5,875
Average shelter spending (10%): $27,435
Average value of primary real estate (5%): $1,891,866
Average commute in minutes (10%): 16.7
Five-year population growth (10%): 17.2%
Housing starts per 10,000 residents (10%): 20.5
3. District of North Vancouver
2018 rank: 8
Average household income (10%): $147,433
Average household income under 35 (10%): $124,403
Five-year average household income growth (15%): 16.9%
Average household spending on recreation (10%): $7,446
Average shelter spending (10%): $31,055
Average value of primary real estate (5%): $1,668,988
Average commute in minutes (10%): 26.6
Five-year population growth (10%): 4.1%
Housing starts per 10,000 residents (10%): 118.3
4. Township of Langley
2018 rank: 11
Average household income (10%): $122,162
Average household income under 35 (10%): $101,784
Five-year average household income growth (15%): 17.1%
Average household spending on recreation (10%): $5,945
Average shelter spending (10%): $26,631
Average value of primary real estate (5%): $1,342,970
Average commute in minutes (10%): 28.1
Five-year population growth (10%): 11.4%
Housing starts per 10,000 residents (10%): 70.7
5. Kelowna
2018 rank: 6
Average household income (10%): $99,664
Average household income under 35 (10%): $69,901
Five-year average household income growth (15%): 18.1%
Average household spending on recreation (10%): $5,111
Average shelter spending (10%): $22,858
Average value of primary real estate (5%): $682,164
Average commute in minutes (10%): 18.1
Five-year population growth (10%): 9.1%
Housing starts per 10,000 residents (10%): 109.6
Unemployment rate (10%): 5.7%
6. Prince Rupert
2018 rank: 5
Average household income (10%): $98,108
Average household income under 35 (10%): $64,151
Five-year average household income growth (15%): 20.9%
Average household spending on recreation (10%): $3,998
Average shelter spending (10%): $16,859
Average value of primary real estate (5%): $303,883
Average commute in minutes (10%): 11.4
Five-year population growth (10%): -2.1%
Housing starts per 10,000 residents (10%): 26.4
Unemployment rate (10%): 4.7%
7. City of Langley
Average household income (10%): $82,466
Average household income under 35 (10%): $75,094
Average household spending on recreation (10%): $3,901
Average shelter spending (10%): $20,276
Average value of primary real estate (5%): $629,191
Average commute in minutes (10%): 28.7
Five-year population growth (10%): 5.0%
Housing starts per 10,000 residents (10%): 194.9
8. City of North Vancouver
Average household income (10%): $90,999
Average household income under 35 (10%): $69,501
Average household spending on recreation (10%): $4,189
Average shelter spending (10%): $21,513
Average value of primary real estate (5%): $1,190,600
Average commute in minutes (10%): 26.2
Five-year population growth (10%): 8.9%
Housing starts per 10,000 residents (10%): 142.4
9. Fort St. John
2018 rank: 1
Average household income (10%): $122,534
Average household income under 35 (10%): $103,214
Five-year average household income growth (15%): 14%
Average household spending on recreation (10%): $5,596
Average shelter spending (10%): $23,791
Average value of primary real estate (5%): $372,330
Average commute in minutes (10%): 14.7
Five-year population growth (10%): 6.0%
Housing starts per 10,000 residents (10%): 14.1
Unemployment rate (10%): 5.6%
10. Maple Ridge
2018 rank: 16
Average household income (10%): $107,319
Average household income under 35 (10%): $89,552
Average household spending on recreation (10%): $5,275
Average shelter spending (10%): $24,261
Average value of primary real estate (5%): $1,036,416
Average commute in minutes (10%): 34.3
Five-year population growth (10%): 8.2%
Housing starts per 10,000 residents (10%): 72.5
11. Coquitlam
2018 rank: 19
Average household income (10%): $107,029
Average household income under 35 (10%): $80,988
Average household spending on recreation (10%): $5,066
Average shelter spending (10%): $23,917
Average value of primary real estate (5%): $1,180,339
Average commute in minutes (10%): 33.8
Five-year population growth (10%): 9.6%
Housing starts per 10,000 residents (10%): 68.7
12. Sechelt
Average household income (10%): $81,085
Average household income under 35 (10%): $81,176
Five-year average household income growth (15%): 13.6%
Average household spending on recreation (10%): $3,645
Average shelter spending (10%): $17,395
Average value of primary real estate (5%): $828,592
Average commute in minutes (10%): 20.9
Five-year population growth (10%): 7.1%
Housing starts per 10,000 residents (10%): 109.4
13. Parksville
2018 rank: 23
Average household income (10%): $73,396
Average household income under 35 (10%): $90,332
Five-year average household income growth (15%): 16.5%
Average household spending on recreation (10%): $3,612
Average shelter spending (10%): $16,629
Average value of primary real estate (5%): $511,174
Average commute in minutes (10%): 17.5
Five-year population growth (10%): 6.1%
Housing starts per 10,000 residents (10%): 36.3
Unemployment rate (10%): 4.6%
14. Surrey
2018 rank: 17
Average household income (10%): $108,207
Average household income under 35 (10%): $79,834
Five-year average household income growth (15%): 17.2%
Average household spending on recreation (10%): $5,225
Average shelter spending (10%): $25,305
Average value of primary real estate (5%):