Technology in 2011: The Predictions Game

Could 2011 see Facebook surpass Google as the ultimate Internet platform?

Here’s a game everyone can join. Predict what’s going to happen in tech in 2011. Prognosticators, let yourself go wild.  

Predictions are everywhere this time of year, but some can be more interesting than others – often because they’re so sweeping.

Everyone likes making big predictions because underneath they’re really a great game of “What if?” That’s why I found B.C. tech guru David Chalk’s predictions relevant and great seeding material for everyone else who wants to join the game.

Dave’s predictions follow with some of my thoughts attached.

1. The Stuxnet virus will hit a major infrastructure such as an electrical grid, or a transportation system.

Wouldn’t surprise me. Stuxnet, which is the first malware to hit industrial systems (and cover its own tracks so managers don’t know it’s there), was blamed for taking down the Iranian nuclear development program last year. It’s so powerful that you know someone, somewhere, is going to use it for cyberwarfare.

2. A phone company will go bankrupt.

This, surely because of the Internet’s ability to facilitate voip and cell phone apps. No surprise there. Phone companies are scrambling to deal with all the route-arounds allowed by the Internet. Something has to give.

3. A television network will go under.

Uh, yep. Something like a third of Internet traffic during prime time has been attached to Netflix and similar on-demand video streaming operations that are cutting into television’s traditional territory. The old television model is broken, and many traditional television networks have lost major advertising market share because of it. One of them is going to give up trying.

4. A major fraud will unfold during the year.

Galloping advances in Internet use and software applications almost ensure that someone, right now, is figuring out how to tweak some system to create financial havoc. Bernie Madoff did it the old fashioned way. Somewhere on the Internet exists his virtual doppelganger.

5. Yahoo will be bought.

The Internet portal pioneer, while still profitable, has been struggling for some time trying to find a strategy to maximize use of its various tentacles. Meanwhile the vultures have been circling. Yahoo beat off Microsoft once, but it may be back again. Facebook has the desire and the cash to take it out and outpace Google as the ultimate Internet platform. Or maybe Hong Kong’s AliBaba, which owns a large chunk of Yahoo and is moving into China in a big way, is interested. They do things big over there, and Alibaba could go far if it buys up the rest.

So those are Chalk’s predictions. What are yours?

Let your mind roam and add to this game.