Canadians love U.S. real estate—but will a trade war change that?

Canadians looooove American real estate.

For all that we have liked  to serially complain over  the decades that our True North Strong and Free land is being bought up by the Americans, the Japanese, the Chinese, the Russians, the Koreans, the South Asians—we apparently love that Yankee dirt right back.

In fact, the U.S. National Association of Realtors report for 2024 (the last one available) showed that tiny little us, population 40 million, surged ahead of China, population much bigger than 40 million, for number of properties bought in the U.S.

Okay, so the 7,100 homes that Canadians bought in the U.S. in 2024 is a dribble compared to the peak of 2010 (69,100) or even the mid-2000s, when the numbers were in the 40-50,000 range.

But foreign buying has been slowly declining for all groups, leaving Canadians still among the most prevalent buyers in recent years, with a 13-percent share of all purchases.

As it turns out, we can also be the biggest sellers, when things aren’t going well. In the 2024 report, Canadians represented almost a quarter of foreign owners selling their properties. Much of that is happening in the states where foreigners are also the biggest buyers: Florida, Arizona, California, Hawaii.

I can hardly wait to see what the 2025 report, which will cover from last April up to March 2025, will have to say, given the unprecedented turbulence south of the border because of The White House Resident Who Shall Not Be Named. It seems likely that the sell-off, particularly in redder states like Florida, will be continuing apace.

In the meantime, there is much chatter among current owners, among friends, relatives and neighbours of owners, among realtors and among business-watcher types about what might happen among B.C. proprietors who have flocked to various parts of nearby Washington State and bought up a lot of recreational property, in particular.

In Point Roberts, in Blaine, in Birch Bay, in rural vacation compounds on the road to Mount Baker, Canadians have become a significant component of the population.

So it’s a big question: will they decamp?

Joy Trayers sure isn’t planning to. Trayers says she’s actually been through worse since she and her husband bought a share at the Black Mountain Ranch Campground 19 kilometres southeast of Sumas in August of 2001.

“We’re not planning on selling. Compared to what happened with 9/11 and COVID, this isn’t anywhere near as bad,” says the retired sales rep from Delta who still speaks in the friendly but no-nonsense tones of her former career. “With COVID, the border was down for two years and we still had to pay.”

Now, she’s prepared to ride out what she believes will be temporary wonkiness, and  she doesn’t anticipate any border problems.

“I don’t like what he’s doing but we’ve got to put up with it for four years.”

The resort that she and her husband head for regularly in the non-winter months is filled with Canadians, somewhere in the 80- to 90-percent range, and she hasn’t heard about anyone else leaving either. It’s a place that B.C. residents have been going for generations, in the foothills near Mount Baker, where kids can run free all day long, swim, play field games or go horseback riding.

Another local with no plans to leave is Bryn Davidson, a Vancouver builder with dual citizenship who bought into The Glen at Maple Falls,  another vacation resort near Black Mountain, during the COVID years.

He has noticed some owners speculating on the resort’s internal Facebook page about selling, with a few saying they definitely will because of “the situation.” As well, Canadian friends he has been inviting down to visit have been politely declined, saying they aren’t crossing the border for the moment.

But, like Trayers, he’s not going anywhere. It’s an ideal country-feeling place where he, his partner and son can have some space to roam around that isn’t available in their Mount Pleasant condo.

Realtors from just south of the border say they are not seeing a big exodus for the moment. That’s in part because previous border traumas have already changed some patterns.

“We experienced Canadians selling during COVID specifically in areas that were second homes or vacation homes, and they had just started to venture back,” said Christine Rasmussen, who specializes in the Blaine/Birch Bay/Bellingham area. (Interestingly, she is seeing Chinese-American families buying in the area so they can hop across to visit relatives in Canada and indulge in the offerings of the Asian shopping malls, restaurants and night market in Richmond.)

In Point Roberts, it’s  a similar story. The point, that little chunk of America that is attached to Tsawwassen, has been 70 percent owned by Canadians for years. Ninety percent of the boats in the marina are owned by us Maple Leafers.

There’s been some slow selling off over the years for various reasons, says Wayne Lyle, a realtor and president of the Point Roberts Chamber of Commerce.

COVID made their beach getaways inaccessible for a couple of years. They went away to other B.C. places and then didn’t come back.

The Canadian dollar has declined so much that it’s made everything more expensive. And age is a factor as well. They’re getting older and their kids aren’t as interested in using the property.

Lyle has had some listings in recent months but, he says, “none of them have actually stated that it is because of the Canada/U.S. tensions.” (Mind you, people are probably being wary. Several people I reached out to for this column declined to speak with me, not wanting to alienate American neighbours or clients or border guards with their opinions.)

The more telling change for Lyle is that the buyers are now… American. He had three homes listed and all seven offers were from U.S. residents.

“To have all seven offers by Americans is a bit of a shift.”

But it’s a slow one, slower than the abrupt departure of Canadian visitors to the local coffee shop and parcel-service businesses, one of which  just closed due to the loss of those users.

It’s the kind of shift that may be continuing at a moderate pace, depending on  the coming years, as Canadians slowly but steadily disentangle themselves from the neighbour that used to seem so much  like us.