What does another Liberal federal government mean for housing in B.C.?

Mark Carney is coming hot out of the gate as newly minted Prime Minister when it comes to solving one of Canada’s most contested conundrums: housing.

“It’s time to build twice as many homes every year with an entirely new housing industry using Canadian technology, Canadian skilled workers, Canadian lumber…We will build one Canadian economy, not thirteen, with a government committed to free trade in Canada, by Canada,” said Prime Minister Carney in last night’s victory speech.

The April 28 election saw a myriad of surprising results, with many ridings seeing a two-party battle between the Liberals and Conservatives and a poor showing by the NDP (party leader Jagmeet Singh announced he would step down after losing his own seat in Burnaby Central).

 

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Since the federal election was called mid-March, it’s been a short campaign period filled with commentary from south of the border as hot-button issues of trade, sovereignty and affordability loomed large. 

It’s also been a campaign filled with promises on housing, a priority for many Canadians, including British Columbians. According to a Leger poll from March, out of all the other regions polled in Canada, BCers were the most concerned about housing affordability, at 17 percent. The only other issue for BCers that trumped housing concerns: Tariffs and U.S. aggression.  

Now that it’s set to be at least a Liberal government, McGregor Wark, Vice-President at Vancouver-based real estate developer Headwater Projects, says that regardless of the outcome, having a party with set mandates in government will hopefully give market home buyers some confidence to move ahead. 

“The biggest thing that our industry in the Lower Mainland needs right now is certainty,” he says, adding that interest rates and everything in relation to trade with the U.S. has added volatility. Though Wark emphasizes he hasn’t seen any major impacts from tariffs on materials and construction costs yet, the threat remains. “It’s a concern for a lot of developers out there because you can’t control it. So, my hope is that our government has some positive discussions and negotiations, and we get a new trade agreement in place,” he says. 

The Liberal party has made some big promises on affordability, pledging to eliminate GST on homes at or under $1 million for first-time home buyers. “It’s becoming more and more challenging for young people to enter the market,” Wark says, “So I hope that’s something [the Liberals] stick to and we see some relief for first-time home buyers.”

The Liberals have also promised to double the rate of housing construction to 500,000 homes a year for the next 10 years. “That’ll be an interesting one to track, especially if the federal government decides to get into the development game,” Wark says. The new federal government does want to get back to building, to “build affordable housing at scale, including on public lands,” their housing plan states. 

 “The biggest thing for us in the development industry is to know that our government understands that there are challenges we’re facing and that we’re going to need to make changes to existing policies to ensure that we see progression and bring housing projects to the market,” Wark adds.

Andrey Pavlov, a professor of finance at Simon Fraser University’s Beedie School of Business, says he’s glad the conversation has shifted to focus on Canada needing to build more homes, one way or another. “In fact, if anything [the 500,000] is on the low side,” he says.

Though he says building this much is a great goal, his concern is where the money will come from. The government fronting the construction of 500,000 homes would cost billions of dollars annually. “There is no room in the budget. Regardless of the deficits we are running, there is no room to pay for that,” Pavlov says. 

“The only way that can be financed is through private investment.” He says he hasn’t seen the roll back in regulation, simplification of taxes, or elimination of red tape that would draw investors to Canada, or even B.C., with the speculation and vacancy tax, and regulation of short-term rentals.

“Without those things, all three of them, Canada is not an attractive place to invest. And both Canadians and foreigners are just going to put their money elsewhere,” he says.

In their housing plan, the Liberals have promised to “cut red tape” and “catalyze private capital” but it remains to be seen what platform promises the new government will fulfill. As for Wark and his work here in British Columbia, he hopes the government will “focus eyes out west.”

“We need to make sure that the federal government looks at the challenges we face out here with our housing market and that they’re willing to work with us to ensure that we can continue to bring units to market and provide housing for those people that need it out here,” he says.