What someone really means when they say something is “likely”

People use imprecise words to describe the chance of events all the time, especially in the worlds of business, investing and politics. Phil Tetlock, a professor of psychology at the University of Pennsylvania suggests that using a word to describe the likelihood of a probabilistic outcome gives the speaker lot of wiggle room to look good no matter what the outcome might be. Vague words not only let the speaker avoid being pinned down but also allow the receiver to interpret the message subjectively, leading to poor communication. Take the Probability Survey to compare your perception of words to other people’s.